Marine forecasting has always played an important role in offshore wind development. Now, advancements in technology, such as the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning with fast, high-resolution modelling tools contribute significantly to both risk reduction and cost savings in an industry under pressure from all sides.
Many offshore wind farm developers have halted development of new offshore wind farms due to increasing costs. The energy developer Ørsted suspended the development of two US offshore wind projects and Swedish energy developer Vattenfall halted the development of a giant wind farm off the Norfolk coast in the UK due to costs increasing 40% as a consequence of rising gas prices. Some developers also hesitate to answer the call for tenders when nations open up new areas for offshore wind farm development because the conditions and requirements may sometimes impede solid business cases.
Bureaucracy and long approval and planning processes are some of the main challenges for the offshore wind sector. Finding sites for the wind farms with the right conditions is another. The increasing costs of installing and operating the wind farms a third. These challenges in the offshore wind sector are all counterproductive to international and national ambitions to accelerate the green transition and reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.
Forecasting can reduce costs and risks in offshore wind development
Accurate marine forecasting contributes significantly to the financial viability of offshore wind projects. By optimising the scheduling of construction and maintenance activities, developers can reduce operational costs and enhance the overall efficiency of the wind farm both during Transport & Installation (T&I) and Operation & Maintenance (O&M) project phases. This, in turn, leads to more competitive energy pricing and supports the transition to renewable energy sources.
Wind farm developers need accurate data on meteorological and ocean conditions at a potential site to calculate the costs of development and plan the optimal periods for T&I and O&M, ensuring safety and efficiency during commissioning and operation. The lack of an accurate site characterisation and forecast leads to unforeseen delays, unnecessary risks and results in increasing costs.
Investment in efficiency will help the massive rollout planned within the offshore wind sector. Developers often install costly measurement buoys and procure high-quality and costly metocean models to support the engineering design. A modern marine forecasting service such as DHI BlueCast uses these data sources and models and transforms them into local and highly accurate metocean predictions, combining in-situ data and validated high-resolution historical model data with localised ensemble predictions. Consequently, developers and contractors can maximise the value of their existing investments by making sure more weather windows are predicted and leveraged, lowering operational risks.
Regulatory compliance is supported by modern marine forecasting
Environmental considerations are also a key aspect of offshore wind farm development and operations. Increasingly strict environmental legislation and licensing requirements make it necessary for developers to be able to provide accurate and data-backed information on approaches to minimising impact on the local marine environment. Accurate marine forecasting assists developers in mitigating environmental impacts by planning activities to avoid sensitive periods for marine wildlife. Furthermore, compliance with regulatory requirements often necessitates precise scheduling of operations, which can be effectively managed with reliable forecasts.
In summary, the combination of accumulated knowledge from the design phase, leveraging high-volume compute and real-time measurements, makes modern marine forecasting a game-changer for developers and contractors alike to reduce cost and risk for assets, people and the environment during critical T&I seasons and throughout the wind farm’s operation life span.
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If you’re interested in DHI’s innovative marine forecasting solutions or want to learn more about DHI BlueCast, join our upcoming webinar: Diving into Water Innovations — High-Resolution Ensemble Wave Predictions for All.
